GDP vs Major Indices vs Sector performance

In order to understand the behaviour of logistics stocks we must look at the movements of the transport sector (DJT and NASDAQ Transport) vs the major indices and GDP.

Looking at the components of DJT and NASDAQ Transport, these two indices are not completely representative of the logistics sector. They are nevertheless dependant on the volume of trade and hence related to GDP performance.

Comparing GDP performance with the performance of the indices and sectors we deduce three things:
1) DJT and Nasdaq Transport move in tandem with the major indices NYSE, NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE and Nikkei and are therefore cyclical.
2) The stock market, and sectors, are between two to four quarters ahead of the economic cycle.
3) The performance of the SSE appears to be unrelated to any other market and the Chinese economy.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA, also called the “Dow Jones Transports”) is a U.S. stock market index from S&P Dow Jones Indices of the transportation sector, and is the most widely recognized gauge of the American transportation sector. It is the oldest stock index still in use, even older than its better-known relative, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Components

The index is a running average of the stock prices of twenty transportation corporations, with each stock’s price weighted to adjust for stock splits and other factors.[1] As a result, it can change at any time the markets are open. The figure mentioned in news reports is usually the figure derived from the prices at the close of the market for the day.

Corporation	Ticker	Industry
Alaska Air Group, Inc.	ALK	airlines
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.	CHRW	trucking
Con-Way, Inc.	CNW	trucking
CSX Corp.	CSX	railroads
Delta Air Lines.	DAL	airlines
Expeditors International	EXPD	delivery services
FedEx Corporation	FDX	delivery services
GATX Corp.	GMT	business support services
JB Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	JBHT	trucking
JetBlue Airways Corp.	JBLU	airlines
Kansas City Southern	KSU	railroads
Kirby Corp.	KEX	marine transportation
Landstar System, Inc.	LSTR	trucking
Matson, Inc.	MATX	marine transportation
Norfolk Southern Corp.	NSC	railroads
Ryder System, Inc.	R	transportation services
Southwest Airlines, Inc.	LUV	airlines
Union Pacific Corp.	UNP	railroads
United Continental Holdings	UAL	airlines
United Parcel Service, Inc.	UPS	delivery services

(as of April 2013)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Transportation_Average retrieved 28 May 2014