Technical Analysis

A Slow Fourth Quarter Stagnates the Growth of 3PLs for Fiscal Year 2014

by Neelam Singh
April 2nd, 2015

The 3PL market has shown slow growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 mainly because of the declining Euro.

ARC Advisory Group (Logistics Viewpoints) tracks the quarterly revenue results of the most prominent publicly traded 3PLs on an ongoing basis. The report is published after all the companies on the list release their revenues. The off cycle earnings results by some large 3PLs is why we are reporting about 2014 revenues in April.

For this financial analysis, the scope of coverage includes non-asset based transportation and warehousing services (referred to as “contract logistics” in Europe):

Non-asset based domestic transportation services (brokerage and managed transportation services)
Non-asset based international transportation services (freight for-warding and customs services)
Warehousing services (warehousing and associated services such as packaging, light assembly, sequencing goods for a factory line)
The full year revenues across the public firms covered in this analysis has increased by 4.0 percent year over year, while fourth quarter revenues are up by 0.6 percent.  High flyers, based on year over year growth, include:

Norbert Dentressangle, up 22.5 percent
JBHunt, up 19.5 percent
Hyandai GLOVIS, up 12.6 percent
Expeditors International of Washington, up 8 percent
DSV, up 6.7 percent
Companies witnessing decline in year over year revenues include:

Agility, down 8.9 percent
Uti Worldwide (4Q ends in January), down 5.8 percent
CEVA Logistics, down 4 percent
Remember, based on our definition, we are excluding asset-based transportation revenues from Agility, Hyundai, J B Hunt and Norbert Dentressangle.

The warehousing services business did the best, up 1.4 percent for the fourth quarter and 5.6 percent for the year.  International transportation services did the worst, year over year. Full year revenues were up 2.9 percent and fourth quarter revenues increased by 0.1 percent.  Domestic transportation services were up in the fourth quarter by 0.6 percent and for the full year by 4.8 percent.

The table below lists the annual performance of the top eighteen publicly traded 3PLS.

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If you would like a complete copy of this analysis, including the results of the eighteen 3PLs covered, please contact chanf@arcweb.com.

Source: logisticsviewpoints.com/2015/04/02/a-slow-fourth-quarter-stagnates-the-growth-of-3pls-for-fiscal-year-2014/, retrieved 7 April 2015

GDP vs Major Indices vs Sector performance

In order to understand the behaviour of logistics stocks we must look at the movements of the transport sector (DJT and NASDAQ Transport) vs the major indices and GDP.

Looking at the components of DJT and NASDAQ Transport, these two indices are not completely representative of the logistics sector. They are nevertheless dependant on the volume of trade and hence related to GDP performance.

GDP vs stock market indices growth since 2000 ex CN with markersDAX Sector Transportation + Logistics

China GDP vs SSE performance since 2000 with lines

Comparing GDP performance with the performance of the indices and sectors we deduce three things:
1) DJT and Nasdaq Transport move in tandem with the major indices NYSE, NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE and Nikkei and are therefore cyclical.
2) The stock market, and sectors, are between two to four quarters ahead of the economic cycle.
3) The performance of the SSE appears to be unrelated to any other market and the Chinese economy.

NASDAQ Transportation Index

The NASDAQ Transportation Index (Symbol: TRAN) is a capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of all NASDAQ stocks in the transportation sector. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of February 5, 1971. The parent index is NASDAQ Composite Index.

Components

Name Symbol
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings AAWW
Arkansas Best Corporation ABFS
Air T, Inc. AIRT
Allegiant Travel Company ALGT
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. ATSG
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW
Capital Product Partners L.P. CPLP
Covenant Transport CVTI
Diana Containerships Inc. DCIX
DryShips Inc. DRYS
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. ECHO
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. EGLE
Euroseas Ltd. ESEA
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD
Frozen Food Express Industries FFEX
FreeSeas Inc. FREE
SMF Energy Corporation FUEL
Forward Air Corporation FWRD
StealthGas, Inc. GASS
Globus Maritime Limited GLBS
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. HA
Heartland Express, Inc. HTLD
Hub Group, Inc. HUBG
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JGHT
JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR
Marten Transport, Ltd. MRTN
NewLead Holdings Ltd. NEWL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ODFL
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro OMAB
Pacer International, Inc. PACR
Patriot Transportation Holding PATR
Pinnacle Airlines Corp. PNCL
P.A.M. Transportation Services PTSI
Providence and Worcester Railroad PWX
Quality Distribution, Inc. QLTY
Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. RJET
Rand Logistics, Inc. RLOG
Ryanair Holdings plc RYAAY
Saia, Inc. SAIA
Spirit Airlines, Inc. SAVE
Star Bulk Carriers Corp. SBLK
Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp SHIP
Sino-Global Shipping America, Ltd SINO
SkyWest, Inc. SKYW
TBS International plc TBSI
TOP Ships Inc. TOPS
TORM A/S TRMD
Universal Truckload Services, Inc. UACL
Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Limited ULTR

 

Source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASDAQ_Transportation_Index retrieved 28 May 2014

Dow Jones Transportation Average

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA, also called the “Dow Jones Transports”) is a U.S. stock market index from S&P Dow Jones Indices of the transportation sector, and is the most widely recognized gauge of the American transportation sector. It is the oldest stock index still in use, even older than its better-known relative, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Components

The index is a running average of the stock prices of twenty transportation corporations, with each stock’s price weighted to adjust for stock splits and other factors.[1] As a result, it can change at any time the markets are open. The figure mentioned in news reports is usually the figure derived from the prices at the close of the market for the day.

Corporation Ticker Industry
Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK airlines
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW trucking
Con-Way, Inc. CNW trucking
CSX Corp. CSX railroads
Delta Air Lines. DAL airlines
Expeditors International EXPD delivery services
FedEx Corporation FDX delivery services
GATX Corp. GMT business support services
JB Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT trucking
JetBlue Airways Corp. JBLU airlines
Kansas City Southern KSU railroads
Kirby Corp. KEX marine transportation
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR trucking
Matson, Inc. MATX marine transportation
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC railroads
Ryder System, Inc. R transportation services
Southwest Airlines, Inc. LUV airlines
Union Pacific Corp. UNP railroads
United Continental Holdings UAL airlines
United Parcel Service, Inc. UPS delivery services

(as of April 2013)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Transportation_Average retrieved 28 May 2014