Economic Indicators
Global GDP worse than official forecasts show, Maersk CEO says
Economy News -COPENHAGEN (BLOOMBERG) – The world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting.. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Source: Global GDP worse than official forecasts show, Maersk CEO says
Signs of global manufacturing slowdown bottoming out as PMI hits seven-month high | Global manufacturing | Markit Commentary
Global manufacturing started the fourth quarter showing tentative signs of renewed life.
Global trade grows 8% in first quarter
On the basis of trade data available in mid-April, MDS Transmodal estimates that global trade (excluding intra-regional flows) has grown by some 8% in the first quarter of 2015 compared with the same period last year and could expand by some 5% by the end of the year, exceeding an overall volume of some 105m teu.
The highest annual growth rates for the first three months of 2015 are estimated to be on the routes departing East Asia. Exports from East Asia (excluding cargo remaining in the region) are estimated to have grown by more than 14% during the first quarter of 2015 compared to last year; cargo into sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to be up by more than 30%.
MDST has monitored European trade lanes and, for the first three months of 2015, has estimated year-on-year growth rates of 6.8% and 6.6% for the routes leaving Europe and the Mediterranean and arriving in the region respectively.
Based upon the trade statistics available at the time of this analysis, MDST forecasts that while the overall exports for 2015 from northern Europe and the Mediterranean could still be growing by some 6%, imports into the region might be growing at a lower rate of some 4.6%, mainly due to a slowdown expected in volumes imported from Latin America.
For the transatlantic trade lane (both directions together), MDST estimates demand has grown by some 5.7% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter previous year and that supply has seen a contraction of around 7% during the same period, resulting in an improvement in the level of utilisation.
The size of ships expected to experience the highest drop is 3,000 teu-5,000 teu, down by some 22% between the first quarter of 2014 and first quarter of 2015; this class of vessels is estimated to account for 70% of the overall fleet on the transatlantic routes, down from 82% estimated during the first three months of 2014.
Assessing costs and revenues, MDST estimates a deterioration in the overall profit generated in the transatlantic trade lane during the first quarter of 2015 compared to the same quarter last year, mainly driven by a drop in unit revenue (down by 20.5%). The fall in unit revenue has cancelled out the reduction estimated in unit cost (down by 9.2%).
On the demand side, MDST estimates that the main commodity groups moved on the transatlantic trade lane in 2015 are general industrial machinery and vegetables and fruit in the westbound and eastbound directions respectively. Compared to 2014 volumes, MDST estimates that while general industrial machinery is estimated to be declining (down by 1%), vegetables and fruit is growing at an annual rate of some 4%.
Extracted from an article originally published in Lloyd’s List. You can read the full article via this link:
This data is provided by MDS Transmodal, an independent consultancy providing economic and commercial advice in the international transport sector. For more information about the company, please visit http://www.mdst.co.uk
Source: http://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/Global-trade-grows-8-in-first-quarter/62856.htm?utm_source=Lloyd%27s+Loading+List+Daily+News+Bulletin&utm_campaign=4a50485966-Wed_30_July7_30_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1a5c244239-4a50485966-257584393#.VVvF02ZnDe0, retrieved 20 May 2015
World Economy Ready to Bounce After Sluggish Opening to 2015
by Simon Kennedy
5:06 PM HKT April 7, 2015
It’s deja vu time all over again for the world economy.
That means you can expect output to pick up after a disappointingly sluggish first quarter, say economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Capital Economics Ltd.
Since 2010, global growth has averaged 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared to an overall rate of 3 percent, according to JPMorgan. This year, the expansion was just 1.7 percent — almost a percentage point below what the New York-based bank predicted at the start of the year and down from the 3.1 percent of the second half of 2014.
“We have a forecast of a rebound in growth in the second quarter from this disappointment, with the U.S. leading the way,” said Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist.
He is priming investors for a bounce to 3 percent this quarter and 3.3 percent in the subsequent three months.
Why the expectation of better times ahead? Andrew Kenningham, senior global economist at Capital Economics in London, points to surveys of business sentiment as reflecting the underlying strength of the world economy.
Markit Group Ltd.’s global purchasing managers’ index, for example, remained expansionary in March, slipping only to 51.8 from 51.9 in February.
As for the U.S., last week’s news of the weakest hiring since December 2013 rounded off a quarter in which retail sales and capital goods orders all pointed to a first quarter flop. That leaves JPMorgan estimating growth was just 0.6 percent.
Still, Stephen Jen, founder of the hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP, told clients in a report Monday that the soft patch in the U.S. probably stemmed from an especially frigid winter and that employment and wages will soon accelerate.
Ignore the Data
“The weak U.S. data in recent weeks are to be ignored,” Jen said.
One new development is that the euro area may not be a drag. The JPMorgan team predicts expansion of 2.3 percent this quarter after 2 percent in the past three months.
The European Central Bank’s bond-buying has lifted financial markets, while fiscal policy and bank lending are easing. Plunges in the euro and oil will also assist.
The upshot in the eyes of JPMorgan and Capital Economics is a second year of global growth about 2.7 percent even with the new year disappointment.
“It is now clear that there was a sharp drop in global growth in the first quarter,” Kenningham told clients last week. “But activity is likely to rebound.”
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-07/world-economy-ready-to-bounce-after-sluggish-opening-to-2015, retrieved 7 April 2015
Japan Imports 2015 February
Imports in Japan decreased to 6356.66 JPY Billion in February of 2015 from 7322.20 JPY Billion in January of 2015. Imports in Japan averaged 2743.86 JPY Billion from 1963 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 8044.06 JPY Billion in January of 2014 and a record low of 162.06 JPY Billion in January of 1963. Imports in Japan is reported by the Ministry of Finance Japan.
United States Imports 2015 February
Imports in the United States decreased 4.4 percent to 221693 USD Million in February of 2015 from 231916 USD Million in January of 2015. It is the lowest value since October 2012. Imports in the United States averaged 59916.12 USD Million from 1950 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 240603 USD Million in December of 2014 and a record low of 577 USD Million in March of 1950. Imports in the United States is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Euro Area Imports 2015 January
Imports in the Euro Area increased to 140280.60 EUR Million in January of 2015 from 138434 EUR Million in December of 2014. Imports in the Euro Area averaged 112287.83 EUR Million from 1999 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 161018 EUR Million in October of 2012 and a record low of 55641.60 EUR Million in January of 1999. Imports in the Euro Area is reported by the Eurostat.
China Imports 2015 February
Imports in China decreased to 1085.72 USD Hundred Million in February of 2015 from 1376.12 USD Hundred Million in January of 2015. Imports in China averaged 444.31 USD Hundred Million from 1983 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 1830.94 USD Hundred Million in March of 2013 and a record low of 16.60 USD Hundred Million in July of 1983. Imports in China is reported by the General Administration of Customs.
China Exports 2015 February
Exports in China decreased to 1691.91 USD Hundred Million in February of 2015 from 1963.62 USD Hundred Million in January of 2015. Exports in China averaged 505.46 USD Hundred Million from 1983 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 2275.14 USD Hundred Million in December of 2014 and a record low of 13 USD Hundred Million in January of 1984. Exports in China is reported by the General Administration of Customs.
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