World Economy Ready to Bounce After Sluggish Opening to 2015

by Simon Kennedy
5:06 PM HKT April 7, 2015

It’s deja vu time all over again for the world economy.

That means you can expect output to pick up after a disappointingly sluggish first quarter, say economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Capital Economics Ltd.

Since 2010, global growth has averaged 2.8 percent in the first quarter, compared to an overall rate of 3 percent, according to JPMorgan. This year, the expansion was just 1.7 percent — almost a percentage point below what the New York-based bank predicted at the start of the year and down from the 3.1 percent of the second half of 2014.

“We have a forecast of a rebound in growth in the second quarter from this disappointment, with the U.S. leading the way,” said Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan’s chief economist.
He is priming investors for a bounce to 3 percent this quarter and 3.3 percent in the subsequent three months.

Why the expectation of better times ahead? Andrew Kenningham, senior global economist at Capital Economics in London, points to surveys of business sentiment as reflecting the underlying strength of the world economy.

Markit Group Ltd.’s global purchasing managers’ index, for example, remained expansionary in March, slipping only to 51.8 from 51.9 in February.

As for the U.S., last week’s news of the weakest hiring since December 2013 rounded off a quarter in which retail sales and capital goods orders all pointed to a first quarter flop. That leaves JPMorgan estimating growth was just 0.6 percent.

Still, Stephen Jen, founder of the hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP, told clients in a report Monday that the soft patch in the U.S. probably stemmed from an especially frigid winter and that employment and wages will soon accelerate.

Ignore the Data

“The weak U.S. data in recent weeks are to be ignored,” Jen said.

One new development is that the euro area may not be a drag. The JPMorgan team predicts expansion of 2.3 percent this quarter after 2 percent in the past three months.

The European Central Bank’s bond-buying has lifted financial markets, while fiscal policy and bank lending are easing. Plunges in the euro and oil will also assist.

The upshot in the eyes of JPMorgan and Capital Economics is a second year of global growth about 2.7 percent even with the new year disappointment.

“It is now clear that there was a sharp drop in global growth in the first quarter,” Kenningham told clients last week. “But activity is likely to rebound.”

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-07/world-economy-ready-to-bounce-after-sluggish-opening-to-2015, retrieved 7 April 2015

A Slow Fourth Quarter Stagnates the Growth of 3PLs for Fiscal Year 2014

by Neelam Singh
April 2nd, 2015

The 3PL market has shown slow growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 mainly because of the declining Euro.

ARC Advisory Group (Logistics Viewpoints) tracks the quarterly revenue results of the most prominent publicly traded 3PLs on an ongoing basis. The report is published after all the companies on the list release their revenues. The off cycle earnings results by some large 3PLs is why we are reporting about 2014 revenues in April.

For this financial analysis, the scope of coverage includes non-asset based transportation and warehousing services (referred to as “contract logistics” in Europe):

Non-asset based domestic transportation services (brokerage and managed transportation services)
Non-asset based international transportation services (freight for-warding and customs services)
Warehousing services (warehousing and associated services such as packaging, light assembly, sequencing goods for a factory line)
The full year revenues across the public firms covered in this analysis has increased by 4.0 percent year over year, while fourth quarter revenues are up by 0.6 percent.  High flyers, based on year over year growth, include:

Norbert Dentressangle, up 22.5 percent
JBHunt, up 19.5 percent
Hyandai GLOVIS, up 12.6 percent
Expeditors International of Washington, up 8 percent
DSV, up 6.7 percent
Companies witnessing decline in year over year revenues include:

Agility, down 8.9 percent
Uti Worldwide (4Q ends in January), down 5.8 percent
CEVA Logistics, down 4 percent
Remember, based on our definition, we are excluding asset-based transportation revenues from Agility, Hyundai, J B Hunt and Norbert Dentressangle.

The warehousing services business did the best, up 1.4 percent for the fourth quarter and 5.6 percent for the year.  International transportation services did the worst, year over year. Full year revenues were up 2.9 percent and fourth quarter revenues increased by 0.1 percent.  Domestic transportation services were up in the fourth quarter by 0.6 percent and for the full year by 4.8 percent.

The table below lists the annual performance of the top eighteen publicly traded 3PLS.

If you would like a complete copy of this analysis, including the results of the eighteen 3PLs covered, please contact chanf@arcweb.com.

Source: logisticsviewpoints.com/2015/04/02/a-slow-fourth-quarter-stagnates-the-growth-of-3pls-for-fiscal-year-2014/, retrieved 7 April 2015

Japan Imports 2015 February

Imports in Japan decreased to 6356.66 JPY Billion in February of 2015 from 7322.20 JPY Billion in January of 2015. Imports in Japan averaged 2743.86 JPY Billion from 1963 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 8044.06 JPY Billion in January of 2014 and a record low of 162.06 JPY Billion in January of 1963. Imports in Japan is reported by the Ministry of Finance Japan.

United States Imports 2015 February

Imports in the United States decreased 4.4 percent to 221693 USD Million in February of 2015 from 231916 USD Million in January of 2015. It is the lowest value since October 2012. Imports in the United States averaged 59916.12 USD Million from 1950 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 240603 USD Million in December of 2014 and a record low of 577 USD Million in March of 1950. Imports in the United States is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Euro Area Imports 2015 January

Imports in the Euro Area increased to 140280.60 EUR Million in January of 2015 from 138434 EUR Million in December of 2014. Imports in the Euro Area averaged 112287.83 EUR Million from 1999 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 161018 EUR Million in October of 2012 and a record low of 55641.60 EUR Million in January of 1999. Imports in the Euro Area is reported by the Eurostat.

China Imports 2015 February

Imports in China decreased to 1085.72 USD Hundred Million in February of 2015 from 1376.12 USD Hundred Million in January of 2015. Imports in China averaged 444.31 USD Hundred Million from 1983 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 1830.94 USD Hundred Million in March of 2013 and a record low of 16.60 USD Hundred Million in July of 1983. Imports in China is reported by the General Administration of Customs.

China Exports 2015 February

Exports in China decreased to 1691.91 USD Hundred Million in February of 2015 from 1963.62 USD Hundred Million in January of 2015. Exports in China averaged 505.46 USD Hundred Million from 1983 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 2275.14 USD Hundred Million in December of 2014 and a record low of 13 USD Hundred Million in January of 1984. Exports in China is reported by the General Administration of Customs.

Japan Exports 2015 February

Exports in Japan decreased to 5941.06 JPY Billion in February of 2015 from 6144.70 JPY Billion in January of 2015. Exports in Japan averaged 3122.42 JPY Billion from 1963 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 7681.69 JPY Billion in March of 2008 and a record low of 105.08 JPY Billion in January of 1963. Exports in Japan is reported by the Ministry of Finance Japan.

Euro Area Exports 2015 January

Exports In the Euro Area decreased to 148224 EUR Million in January of 2015 from 162444 EUR Million in December of 2014. Exports in the Euro Area averaged 115221.49 EUR Million from 1999 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 179730 EUR Million in October of 2014 and a record low of 53086.80 EUR Million in January of 1999. Exports in the Euro Area is reported by the Eurostat.

United States Exports 2015 February

Exports in the United States decreased to 186249 USD Million in February of 2015 from 189239 USD Million in January of 2015. Exports in the United States averaged 47091.40 USD Million from 1950 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 198625 USD Million in October of 2014 and a record low of 772 USD Million in March of 1950. Exports in the United States is reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.